Barclays analyst Ross Sandler suggests that if Alphabet Inc. were forced to spin off its Chrome browser due to antitrust lawsuits, it could experience a substantial 25% decline in stock value. This scenario is labeled a "black swan," indicating its low probability but significant ramifications. Chrome's dominance as the most popular browser among 4 billion users and its crucial contribution of 35% to Google's search traffic raise alarms for investors. The potential loss of Chrome could give competitors like Microsoft and OpenAI an advantage in the growing AI market.
If a court forces Alphabet Inc. to spin off its Chrome browser as part of an antitrust case, its shares could drop 25%.
Sandler calls the potential event a "black swan," which means it is very unlikely. The fact that Sandler has raised the possibility should make investors anxious.
Chrome has 4 billion users worldwide, making it the top browser by market share. Chrome accounts for 35% of Google's search traffic.
The loss of Chrome browser traffic would likely put Alphabet behind AI competitors such as Microsoft and OpenAI, opening the door to a smaller competitor.
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