"Last season, there were plenty of opportunities for regression, given what occurred during the 2023-24 season. Almost every player in last year's article regressed in a meaningful way. Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, Zach Hyman and the Vancouver Canucks regressed in their own significant ways from the previous season. That's not to say they won't bounce back this season."
"Prior to last season, Morgan Geekie's career high in shooting percentage was 13%. His shooting percentage in 2024-2025? 22%! Playing on Boston's top line, that led to a goal total of 33, nearly doubling his previous career high of 17. Suffice to say, that is highly unlikely to occur in back-to-back seasons. Geekie's goal production exploded, his role increased with the Bruins and he saw his offensive zone starts increase from 12.1% to 19.1%."
The NHL preseason is nearly finished and the regular season begins Oct. 7. Many players who overperformed in 2023-24 are primed for regression, with several prior standouts already showing meaningful declines. Candidates for regression include players projected to see a 10+% drop in goals or points driven primarily by unsustainably high shooting percentages. Additional regression factors include role changes, different team environments, and tougher matchups. Morgan Geekie exemplifies a likely regression candidate after a jump from a 13% career-high shooting percentage to 22% and a 33-goal season alongside increased offensive-zone usage.
Read at ESPN.com
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