A Federal Reserve insider has advice for central banks

"Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Friday that unpredictable change is inevitable and central banks need to be aware of that and have strategies to operate in those environments. Williams' comments, which came in prepared remarks for an event in Amsterdam, did not address the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. Williams serves as vice chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which cut interest rates last month as officials sought to offset rising risks to the job market."

""Unpredictable change and uncertainty will certainly continue to be with us for the foreseeable future," Williams said, flagging issues like "the effects of ongoing global demographic shifts, artificial intelligence, and potentially transformative innovations in our financial systems." Williams said dealing with uncertainty means that central banks need robust principles and strategies in place that can deal with a range of contingencies, while noting there will still be novel situations to deal with. Williams also said that formerly unconventional strategies like bond buying are no longer novel and are a normal part of the toolkit. Williams said anchoring inflation expectations is critical and cannot be taken for granted."

Unpredictable change and uncertainty are expected to persist, driven by global demographic shifts, artificial intelligence, and potentially transformative innovations in financial systems. Central banks need robust principles and strategies capable of addressing a wide range of contingencies and novel situations. Formerly unconventional tools such as bond buying are now recognized as normal parts of the policy toolkit. Anchoring inflation expectations remains critical and must not be taken for granted. The Federal Open Market Committee recently cut interest rates to offset rising risks to the labor market, reflecting concern about economic vulnerabilities.

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