"'The forces that previously drove four-year cycles - the BTC halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto's leverage-fueled booms and busts - are significantly weaker than they've been in past cycles,' Hougan wrote. He pointed to the diminishing impact of successive halvings, expectations for falling interest rates in 2026, and reduced systemic leverage following record liquidations in October 2025. Improving regulatory clarity is also expected to lower the risk of major market blow-ups."
"More importantly, Bitwise expects institutional capital flows to accelerate. With spot bitcoin ETFs approved in 2024, the firm anticipates broader participation from major wealth platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill Lynch, alongside increased adoption from Wall Street and fintech firms amid a more favorable regulatory environment following the 2024 U.S. election. Bitwise believes these factors could push bitcoin to fresh all-time highs, effectively ending the relevance of the four-year cycle."
Bitwise forecasts that bitcoin will break from its historical four-year halving-driven cycle and reach new all-time highs in 2026. The firm cites weaker halving effects, expected lower interest rates in 2026, and reduced systemic leverage after October 2025 liquidations. Improved regulatory clarity and approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in 2024 are expected to broaden participation from major wealth platforms and Wall Street firms, accelerating institutional capital flows. Bitcoin volatility has declined, and correlation with equities is falling, which could make bitcoin more attractive to mainstream investors and reduce the likelihood of leverage-fueled market blow-ups.
Read at Bitcoin Magazine
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]