"Costco ( NASDAQ:COST ) had a tough 2025, with its stock declining 6% while the S&P 500 gained 16%, marking a rare significant underperformance for the warehouse retailer. In 2026, however, trends have shifted. Year to date, the benchmark index has gained just 0.5%, but Costco shares have risen over 13%. Now, the warehouse retailer just reported robust January sales of $21.33 billion, up 9.3% year-over-year, supported by a 7.1% increase in comparable sales over the first four weeks of the new year."
"From 2000 to 2025, the stock outperformed the S&P 500 in 16 of those 25 years, a 64% win rate, with average outperformance of 15.5 percentage points. In years where it lagged, the average shortfall was 6.3 percentage points. There were only three years with a significant underperformance of over 10 percentage points, so last year was definitely an outlier."
"But I wanted to see how Costco performed after those slumps. While there were only a few data points-so the results should be interpreted cautiously-Costco beat the index 67% of the time following an underperformance. The analysis, though, showed 2025's 22 percentage point gap was its worst relative performance in over two decades, hinting that this year would be better."
Costco underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, with its stock down 6% while the benchmark rose 16%. In 2026 year-to-date, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% while Costco shares climbed over 13%. January sales totaled $21.33 billion, up 9.3% year-over-year, with comparable sales increasing 7.1% in the first four weeks. From 2000 to 2025, Costco outperformed the S&P 500 in 16 of 25 years, averaging 15.5 percentage points of outperformance; when it lagged the average shortfall was 6.3 points. Costco beat the index 67% of the time after underperforming, though datapoints are limited. Total return including dividends reached 98% over the past three years versus the S&P 500's 74%.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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