"Gold declined for a third consecutive session, struggling once again to break through the $ 4200 / Oz level. The difficulty is partly tied to the nature of the current macro development and Treasury market sentiment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the December rate cut is again priced as almost certain at close to a 90 percent probability, while January also carries more than a 90 percent chance of at least a 25-basis-point reduction."
"One factor shaping this hesitation is the broader improvement in Treasury-market sentiment. The ICE BofA Move Index, which helps to measure the fear in the US T-bond market, has fallen toward its lowest readings since 2021. A quieter bond market implies reduced fear toward public-finance conditions, which lowers the urgency for defensive hedging. The environment is also being lifted by pockets of stabilization in the economic cycle, where select indicators show that activity is no longer deteriorating as sharply as earlier in the year."
Gold declined for a third consecutive session, struggling to break the $4200/oz level. The CME FedWatch Tool prices a December rate cut at close to a 90 percent probability and January carries over a 90 percent chance of at least a 25-basis-point reduction. Despite dovish rate expectations, gold has not advanced without broader risk aversion. Treasury-market sentiment has improved, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index falling toward its lowest readings since 2021. A quieter bond market reduces urgency for defensive hedging. ADP reported a 32,000 private payroll decline in November, concentrated in small firms, while larger firms continue modest expansion.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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