Live: Nu Holdings Reports Q1 Earnings. Could Tonight Be the Start of a Rally?

"Q4 2025 saw net income reach $895 million, a 33% return on equity, revenue grow 45% year-over-year to $4.9 billion, and the customer base reach 131 million. Gross profit climbed 38%, and the efficiency ratio dipped below 20% for the first time. However, the market shrugged. The stock fell 9.55% following the report and 10.29% over the following 30 days. CFO Guilherme Lago framed 2026 as an “investment year,” citing return-to-office costs (an 80 to 100 basis point hit to efficiency), AI and GPU spending, and international expansion."

"I will be watching three things tonight. First, the efficiency ratio. CFO Lago made it clear that the 19.9% Q4 reading will be the floor for a while. If Q1 lands materially above 21%, the market will read that as the investment bill arriving early. Any commentary on the pace of the July 1, 2026 return-to-office rollout will also matter. Second, credit quality. Management already flagged a “seasonal uptick in the 15 to 90-day NPLs in the first quarter”."

"The Q4 baseline was 4.1% on early-stage NPLs and 6.6% on 90+. With the credit portfolio at $32.7 billion, up 40% year-over-year, and unused credit limits jumping from $18 billion to $29 billion, investors will look at whether AI-driven underwriting is holding up. Brazil's CAR ratio at 16.6% leaves less cushion than a year ago. Third, the U.S. and Mexico catalysts. The January 2026 conditional OCC approval for Nubank N.A. and the Mex"

Nu Holdings is scheduled to report first-quarter results after 4:50 PM EST, with shares down 23% since Q4 results in February. Q4 2025 showed net income of $895 million, 33% return on equity, revenue growth of 45% to $4.9 billion, and 131 million customers, alongside gross profit growth and an efficiency ratio below 20% for the first time. Despite this, the stock fell after the report. Management framed 2026 as an “investment year,” citing return-to-office costs, AI and GPU spending, and international expansion. Key focus areas include the efficiency ratio floor, seasonal NPL trends, and credit cushion, plus U.S. and Mexico regulatory and business catalysts.

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