Luck May Be About to Turn for Bregman, Ballesteros -

"Hard-hit balls are going to generate good results more often than their weaker counterparts, but grounders and high flies are not as desirable as line drives. And then there are the times when you do everything right and the baseball gods just sit back and laugh as you come up with nothing."

"That was the case for the Cubs last night, as their six hardest-hit balls went for naught in a quiet loss to the Braves. Alex Bregman's home run, their only hit in the game, came in seventh on the list. It also had the lowest expected batting average of the bunch, with a .350 that came in 40 points lower than Michael Busch 's deep flyout in the 9th inning."

"The Cubs then drew three straight walks to load the bases for Moisés Ballesteros, whose 107.1 mph exit velocity was the second-hardest of the game. The only problem is that it had a -1 degree launch angle and went to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for an RBI forceout that limited the Cubs' ability to keep adding on. If he produces that same contact 100 times, he'd end up with 48 hits."

"Two innings earlier, Mo Baller hammered a liner that ate up Ozzie Albies for a moment before the second baseman gathered the ball and threw to first. At 105.8 mph and 9 degrees, it had a .760 xBA. That came two batters after Ian Happ led off the inning with a lineout to right hit 105.7 mph at 20 degrees, good for a .670 xBA. Bregman made the list two more times, first with a 102 mph groundout (.460 xBA) in the opening frame and then with a 101.7 mph forceout (.680) to end the 5th."

Hard-hit balls often lead to better results, but grounders and high flies are less desirable than line drives, and even well-hit balls can fail to produce runs. In a quiet Cubs loss to the Braves, six of the hardest-hit balls resulted in no scoring, with Alex Bregman’s home run as the only hit. The home run came after a 14-game drought and ranked seventh among hardest-hit balls, with a lower expected batting average than other Cubs contact. Moisés Ballesteros recorded a very hard ball with a negative launch angle that turned into an RBI forceout. Other hard-hit liners and groundouts generated solid expected batting averages but ended in outs, limiting the Cubs’ ability to add runs.

Read at Cubsinsider