Was Edward Cabrera's Last Start Canary in Coalmine or Rock Bottom? -

"Edward Cabrera's performance had been somewhat troubling for a while, with underlying data indicating his stretch of five straight games with three earned runs allowed in each was actually much better than it should have been. A few days prior to his Saturday start against the Rangers, Nate Roper expressed concern about the dip in fastball velocity and the worsening shapes of his breaking balls. The curveball, which makes up 20% of Cabrera's repertoire, had looked particularly bad."

"That was again the case on Saturday night, as he struck out six with a 28.6% K rate that was right in line with his recent results. For reference, he'd been around 16-18% from starts 2-5. Good in a vacuum, but not when you also give up seven hits. Two of those hits left the yard, which has now been the case for Cabrera in three of his last four starts. That's what happens when your stuff isn't as sharp."

"The curveball has lost just over four inches of horizontal movement and nearly four of vertical drop from last season, despite being thrown with the same spin axis and direction. That's not just because it's down 182 RPMs, but also because its spin efficiency has dropped from 77% last year to 63% to this point. In his X thread on the topic, Roper cited a possible grip change as a culprit, but he also noted that it could be nothing more than a matter of angles from the screenshots in question."

"He may have adjusted his grip slightly, this year spiking his index finger more, sitting more on the seam (darker image is 2026). It's such a small change that it could just be individual variance in the images, not an actual change. pic.twitter.com/atlLBgGmWI - Nate Roper (@NateRoper_) May 6, 2026 What we know for certain is that Cabrera has dropped his arm slot to 33 degrees this season after being at 36 last y"

Cabrera’s recent results show a pattern of allowing hits even when strikeout production remains steady. Over multiple starts, he has struck out six or posted a K rate near recent levels, yet he has also surrendered an alarming number of hits. Several of those hits have been home runs, occurring in three of his last four starts. His curveball, a fifth of his repertoire, has degraded in both horizontal movement and vertical drop compared with last season. The curveball’s spin efficiency has fallen substantially, and the spin has also dropped in RPM. A possible grip change has been suggested, though it may reflect only image angles. His arm slot has also dropped to 33 degrees from 36 degrees.

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