"Since it came into being, Bitcoin's ( BTC) price has followed a predictable pattern. A programmed event cuts the supply of Bitcoin in half and creates scarcity. This has often been followed by periods of sharp price increases and later corrections. The repeating sequence, widely known as the four-year cycle, has strongly influenced investor expectations since Bitcoin's earliest days. Recent analysis from Grayscale, backed by onchain data from Glassnode and market-structure insights from Coinbase Institutional, takes a different view of Bitcoin's price path."
"It indicates that Bitcoin's price action in the mid-2020s may be moving beyond this traditional model. Bitcoin's price movements appear increasingly influenced by factors such as institutional demand and broader economic conditions. This article explores Grayscale's view that the four-year cycle framework is losing its ability to fully explain price movements."
Bitcoin's halving-driven four-year cycle is exerting diminishing influence as expanding BTC supply reduces each halving's relative impact. Analysis from Grayscale, supported by Glassnode onchain data and Coinbase Institutional insights, shows mid-2020s price behavior reflects institutional demand, interest-rate expectations, and regulatory momentum more than retail-driven speculation. Recent rises were steadier than 2013 and 2017 rallies, followed by a roughly 30% correction resembling typical bull-market pullbacks. Growing integration of Bitcoin into institutional portfolios and bipartisan US regulatory movement contribute to a market shaped by macroeconomic conditions and large capital flows rather than solely programmed supply shocks.
Read at Cointelegraph
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