Low birthrates in England could lead to closure of 800 primary schools by 2029'

"Declining numbers of children across England could lead to the equivalent of 800 primary schools falling empty or being closed by the end of the decade, according to research by a thinktank. The national decline in pupils at state primary schools is mainly driven by low birthrates but is magnified in London by increasing numbers of people moving out of the capital or leaving the state system to move abroad or send their children to private schools, according to the Education Policy Institute."

"The projections come as many councils struggle to keep primary schools open in the face of falling numbers. With school funding linked to pupil numbers, further falls will heighten the wave of mergers and closures that have already affected parts of England. Jon Andrews, the EPI's head of analysis, said: Schools with falling pupil numbers face increasing financial pressures, which can ultimately threaten their long-term viability."

Declining numbers of children across England could lead to the equivalent of 800 primary schools becoming empty or closing by the end of the decade. The national decline in state primary pupils is mainly driven by low birthrates and is amplified in London by residents moving out or families leaving the state system for private schools or moving abroad. Many councils are already struggling to keep primary schools open. School funding linked to pupil numbers increases financial pressure and drives mergers and closures. National primary pupils peaked at about 4.5 million in 2018–19 and are forecast to fall to 4.24 million by 2029.

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