Israel Is Missing Its Big Chance in Lebanon

"Hezbollah apparently decided to plunge itself, and Lebanon, into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran because it believes that it faces an existential crisis. Israel destroyed much of the organization's missile arsenal in 2023-24, decimated its ranks of commanders, and wiped out most of its political leadership. Hezbollah seems to have concluded that it needs to act now to restore deterrence."

"Israel has apparently reached an equal and opposite conclusion about Hezbollah: that now is the golden opportunity to reduce the organization to irrelevance. The war that ended in 2024 did not completely neutralize Hezbollah, and the organization was making some headway in rearming itself, despite the Lebanese government's efforts to prevent this."

"Israel, the United States, and other actors have long pressed the Lebanese government to do more to disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon; now Israel is demanding for this to be a priority throughout the country, saying that if the Lebanese state cannot or will not disarm Hezbollah, Israel will do so by means of war."

Hezbollah initiated military action against Israel on March 1, believing it faces existential threats after Israel destroyed much of its arsenal, decimated commanders, and eliminated political leadership in 2023-24. Israel views this moment as an opportunity to reduce Hezbollah to irrelevance and has responded with bombing campaigns, calling for civilian evacuations from southern Lebanon and Beirut suburbs. Israel is demanding the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah nationwide, threatening military intervention if the state cannot or will not comply. Both sides appear committed to escalation rather than negotiation, with Israel potentially planning a prolonged campaign including possible renewed occupation of southern Lebanon.

Read at The Atlantic