OPINION: The French far-right have a runaway poll lead - but may yet lose the 2027 election

"Month after month since last November, the opinion polls have scarcely changed. One in three French voters support the Far Right in the first round of next year's presidential election. It makes little difference whether Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella is named by pollsters as the candidate of the Rassemblement National. Le Pen scores 33 percent and Bardella somewhat more up to 38 percent in one poll. In the most recent survey by Harris no other declared or likely candidate attracts more than 19 percent."

"The Far Right seems certain to win Round One of a French presidential election for the first time next April. That is, in itself, a political earthquake. Topping the poll in Round One does not guarantee victory in Round Two but that has been the recent pattern. READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: How France's two-round voting system works In all five 21st century French presidential elections - in 2002, 2007, 2012, 2017 and 2022 - the winner led in the first round."

"In eight of the eleven Fifth Republic presidential elections since 1965, the first-round victor has gone on to become, or remain, President of the Republic. Is the 2027 election already done and dusted? Over the last three weeks, I have sketched the difficulties of the three other main blocs the Centre-Right, the Left and the Centre - as they struggle to find a plausible candidate to challenge the Far Right. READ ALSO: ANALYSIS: Who's who in France's 2027 presidential election race"

Opinion polls show the Far Right holding a large, steady share of support for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. About one in three voters supports the Far Right in Round One, with polling figures varying by whether Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella is named as the candidate. No other declared or likely candidate reaches more than 19 percent in the most recent survey cited. The Far Right appears likely to top Round One, which would be a political shift, but leading in Round One does not ensure winning Round Two. In recent presidential elections, the first-round leader has often gone on to win, yet the possibility remains that coalition dynamics could reverse the outcome in 2027.

Read at www.thelocal.fr