"Upset forecast: (Dodgers win more simulations) Why no number in that parenthetical information? We'd have to use too many decimals! The Dodgers did win more sims, but their edge was four -- out of 10,000 runs of the forecasting machinery. In that sense, there can't possibly be an upset in this matchup between, quite possibly, the two strongest teams left in the bracket."
"This feels like a matchup that the bullpens will decide, and even that is a toss-up. The Dodgers led the majors in blown saves during the second half, but their bullpen numbers are better than Philadelphia's since the start of September. Maybe it's as simple as this: When in doubt, pick the team that has Shohei Ohtani."
The NLDS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies shapes up as a matchup of two of the strongest remaining teams. Simulations show an almost negligible edge for the Dodgers, indicating an effectively even series. Bullpen performance appears likely to decide the outcome, with the Dodgers having led the majors in blown saves during the second half but posting better reliever numbers than Philadelphia since September. The Phillies feature a potent lineup and elite arms, while the Dodgers enter with a healthier rotation and a standout two-way star in Shohei Ohtani.
Read at ESPN.com
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