Without Adams, Should Mamdani Be Worried?

"Multiple corruption scandals have embroiled his administration, and he and his closest aides were indicted. Even before the indictments arrived, he was bleeding out support. Adams was not a mayor devoid of accomplishments, but he had fewer of them than his predecessors and rarely seemed to be engaged with the mechanics of governing. New Yorkers wearied of his act and it became clear, more than a year ago, he had no serious path to a second term."

"What complicates Cuomo's path are his own significant weaknesses as a candidate. He is a lackluster campaigner with a thin field operation. The scandals of his administration-nursing home deaths in the pandemic, sexual harassment allegations that drove him from office-are well-remembered. In the primary, he was able to benefit from enormous super PAC spending and the backing of many politicians and labor unions, only to finish a distant second."

Eric Adams announced he was dropping his reelection bid and will be a one-term mayor amid multiple corruption scandals and indictments involving him and close aides. Support for Adams eroded well before the indictments as voters perceived fewer accomplishments and limited engagement with governing. His core base in outer-borough Black and Latino communities and Orthodox Jews could shift to other candidates. Andrew Cuomo may attract some of those voters, but his campaign is weakened by past scandals, thin field operations, and weak campaigning. Zohran Mamdani leads with growing establishment backing despite ideological divides.

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