"National home prices are projected to grow about 0.5% in 2026, while housing inventory is expected to increase 5%. Mortgage rates are forecast to average around 6.4%, while existing-home sales are projected to rise between 4.25% and 5% compared to 2025 levels. The market is shifting toward a new era where incomes rise faster than home prices and the deep freeze of the last few years begins to thaw, Simonsen said."
"According to the report, three forces are expected to shape the housing market next year: improved affordability as wages outpace price growth; increased household mobility as pent-up demand is released; and growing differences across regions and price tiers. While national averages suggest stability, the outlook notes that local market conditions will vary widely. Parts of the Northeast and Midwest continue to face constrained housing supply, while some Sun Belt states have already experienced price declines tied to higher inventory levels, Simonsen added."
"The report also projects continued strength at the high end of the market. Sales of homes priced above $1 million have outperformed other segments in recent years, supported by wealth gains tied to financial markets. The outlook expects luxury buyers who are often less sensitive to mortgage rates and are more likely to pay cash to remain active in 2026."
National home prices are projected to grow about 0.5% in 2026 while housing inventory is expected to increase around 5%. Mortgage rates are forecast to average near 6.4%, and existing-home sales are expected to rise roughly 4.25–5% versus 2025. Wages are anticipated to outpace home price growth, improving affordability and unlocking pent-up household mobility. Regional variation will widen, with constrained supply in parts of the Northeast and Midwest and inventory-driven price declines in some Sun Belt states. Luxury and million-dollar-plus segments are expected to remain strong, supporting a transition toward a more balanced market driven by supply and wages rather than price appreciation.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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