"As mortgage rates stay near 6%, our weekly housing demand data lines have improved so much that we are at multiyear highs in total pending sales and purchase application data combined. This shouldn't be a shock for our readers because whenever mortgage rates break below 6.64% and head down toward 6%, housing data noticeably improves and unlike last year, mortgage rates haven't spiked higher from that level, thus giving us positive year-over-year growth in our demand data lines."
"Mortgage purchase application data is a forward-looking indicator, as it typically takes about 30-90 days for purchase apps to lead to home sales. In some cases, it can even be longer, as most sellers are homebuyers, and it depends on how long it takes to sell and buy their next home. The key for purchase apps is to have positive week-to-week and year-over-year growth data together, which we have seen in the last 19 weeks."
Mortgage rates near 6% have coincided with significant improvements in weekly housing demand metrics, producing multiyear highs in pending sales and purchase applications. Purchase applications have shown 19 weeks of combined positive year-over-year growth, with 11 positive week-to-week prints and 8 negative prints this year, including a recent 19% year-over-year increase. Purchase application data typically leads home sales by about 30–90 days. Inventory growth has decelerated from 33% earlier in the year to 13.6% and may fall to single digits in the coming weeks, tightening supply as the market moves into 2026.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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