"And most of the people on Wall Street, it's the same hedge. It's like, well, they have to be careful because of inflation. And that's true. But like we've discussed, inflation's kinda locked in 2.7, 2.8, you know, in that range. And we still have the highest central bank rates of any, you know, G10 country. And I think you're exactly right. I think Goldman Sachs thinks two more this year, in October and December of 25 basis points each,"
"And that would take the base fed funds rate down to three to three and a quarter. So the median rate at that level would be three and an eighth or 3.125. And that will have a substantial impact on the nation, the home building, but most importantly we have like 9 trillion of debt coming due or some huge number that they have to, they if, if they can redo that debt at lower interest rates, that'll take the burden down."
Federal Reserve rate decisions may shift toward cuts if political forces push for lower rates to stimulate growth. Wall Street remains cautious because inflation sits around 2.7–2.8 percent while U.S. central bank rates remain the highest among G10 countries. Forecasts from major banks project two 25 basis-point cuts this year and an additional 50 basis points by mid-2026, bringing the fed funds rate to roughly 3.00–3.25 percent (median ~3.125). Lower rates would reduce borrowing costs, ease homebuilding constraints, and enable refinancing of about $9 trillion in maturing debt, lowering fiscal and interest burdens.
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