The article discusses various techniques for estimating task durations, primarily the 2x + 15 rule for smaller tasks and the Hofstadter multiplier for enhanced accuracy based on historical data. It emphasizes the importance of accurate estimations, particularly for complex projects, and suggests that involving the execution team in the estimation process is ideal. The article also warns against the planning fallacy and highlights the value of maintaining precise records to improve future estimation skills and accuracy.
In an ideal world, the best approach is for the team that will actually execute the project to estimate it together.
The Hofstadter multiplier allows individuals to personalize their estimations based on historical data from tasks they've completed.
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