"Arsenal are the Opta supercomputer's favourites ahead of Sunday's game, emerging victorious in 44.6% of our 10,000 pre-match simulations. Newcastle are given just a 30.4% win probability, with the remaining 25% of simulations ending level. But recent history is on Newcastle's side. The Magpies have won their last three home games against Arsenal, two in the Premier League and one in last season's EFL Cup semi-finals, without conceding."
"Under Arteta, Arsenal have lost four away games at Newcastle overall - going down 2-0 in May 2022, 1-0 in both November 2023 and November 2024, and 2-0 in February's EFL Cup second leg. Only against Manchester City (five) have Arsenal lost more away games under Arteta. All four of those defeats have proven costly to Arteta's ambitions. Arsenal were chasing Champions League qualification in 2021-22 when they lost on Tyneside, ultimately missing out by two points, while they were runners-up in both 2023-24 and 2024-25, only falling two points short on the former occasion."
Arsenal return to St James' Park needing three points after a stoppage-time equaliser salvaged a draw against Manchester City. Earlier losses, including 1-0 at Anfield, leave Arsenal five points behind Liverpool and possibly eight by Sunday. Opta simulations favour Arsenal with a 44.6% win probability, while Newcastle sit at 30.4% and 25% of simulations predict a draw. Newcastle have won the last three home meetings against Arsenal without conceding and last achieved four consecutive home wins over Arsenal in August 1969. Arsenal have lost four away games at Newcastle under Arteta, and those defeats have had significant consequences for season objectives.
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