Justice Anthony Kennedy's retirement ended the era of a definitive swing justice as the Supreme Court transitioned to a 6-3 conservative majority. This article investigates whether a swing justice exists in the current Court landscape by analyzing 104 closely divided decisions since 2020. Through a combination of full-text opinion analysis and legal data, it becomes apparent that swing dynamics vary depending on the case type and issue area. Two conservative justices often need to align with the three liberal justices, complicating the notion of who qualifies as a swing justice today.
The retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy marked the end of the swing vote era in the Supreme Court, leading to a solid 6-3 conservative majority.
With Justice Barrett's era, I analyzed 104 closely divided Supreme Court decisions and questioned whether a swing justice still exists, focusing on voting behavior.
The analysis shows that to define a swing justice in the current Court context, we must adopt a broader perspective across various issue areas.
Identifying swing behavior in Supreme Court votes now requires looking at the intersection of legal substance and issue areas, rather than just ideological alignment.
Collection
[
|
...
]