"Wall Street expects earnings of $0.23 per share on revenue of $1.33 billion, representing 63% year-over-year growth. Shares have fallen 17.5% over the past month, underperforming the technology sector amid broader market volatility. The Numbers That Matter What Wall Street Expects: EPS consensus: $0.23 (highest estimate in company history) Revenue consensus: $1.33 billion (midpoint of management's $1.327-1.331 billion guidance) US commercial revenue: Expected to exceed $400 million (continuing triple-digit growth) Adjusted operating margin: Analysts watching for sustained 50%+ levels"
"The Beat Threshold: Based on Palantir's 1.545 beta, the stock typically moves 8-12% on earnings surprises. A meaningful beat would require EPS of at least $0.25 (9% above consensus) paired with revenue exceeding $1.35 billion and raised FY2026 guidance. Historical Context: Palantir has beaten or met earnings estimates in all of the past 8 quarters. The company has not missed since at least Q4 2023. Average surprise over the past year has been 16.6%, with Q3 2025 delivering a 23.5% beat ($0.21 vs $0.17 estimate)."
Consensus estimates for Q4 2025 call for $0.23 EPS and $1.33 billion revenue, implying 63% year-over-year growth. US commercial revenue is expected to exceed $400 million, continuing triple-digit growth, while analysts are watching for adjusted operating margins to stay above 50%. Based on a 1.545 beta, the stock typically moves 8-12% on earnings surprises; a meaningful beat would need at least $0.25 EPS, revenue over $1.35 billion, and raised FY2026 guidance. Palantir has met or beaten estimates for the past eight quarters, with strong Q3 2025 results and growing total contract value signaling revenue visibility.
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