"There is a heavy cloud hanging over Labour's Christmas celebrations. The most recent figures show the economy is going backwards and worse, the slide is prompting recession talk in the corridors of City banks. If there is a recession, it will only be slight, but with unemployment rising and businesses reluctant to invest, the economy remains stuck in first gear. In this gloomy atmosphere, not many Labour MPs will feel comfortable donning paper hats and toasting their leaders."
"The new business rates regime is the latest example. Since the budget last month, pubs and hotels have been calculating how much they will pay from April under a regime pieced together by Treasury officials without apparently being road tested. Small, independent pub chains will be among the worst hit, with some saying the rise in business rates will be 500% or more for an individual pub."
The economy is contracting, with recent figures showing backward movement and rising recession talk in City banks. A mild recession could follow, with rising unemployment and weak investment leaving growth stalled. Whitehall frequently procrastinates: departments produce strategies but delay implementation, sometimes making rushed harmful decisions. The new business rates regime, devised by Treasury officials without apparent road-testing, threatens small, independent pub chains with sharp rate increases—some estimating rises of 500%—and has prompted widespread #taxedout signage. The differential impact between large chains and fragile local pubs risks business closures, reduced investment, and further strain on employment.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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