Permanent residency for Hongkongers may be worth 4bn to UK economy, says thinktank

"Allowing Hongkongers who have moved to the UK to stay permanently after five years could net more than 4bn for the Treasury by 2029, according to a thinktank. The analysis by the China Strategic Risks Institute (CSRI), which was sent to the Home Office before the budget, suggests the move could raise almost as much revenue as a year's worth of air passenger duty by enabling Hongkongers to move their pension savings here."

"More than 160,000 Hongkongers who hold British national (overseas) (BNO) passports have moved to the UK since 2021, according to Home Office figures from earlier this year. The Conservative government at the time opened a visa route for BNO passport holders in response to China's crackdown on democratic rights and civil liberties in Hong Kong. At present, Hongkongers and other migrants can apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) after living in the UK legally for five years."

"The CSRI's analysis challenges claims from Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, that granting ILR to people who have arrived in the UK since 2021 would cost taxpayers billions of pounds. Farage has pledged to entirely abolish ILR and require those who have obtained it to apply for visas if his party wins the next election. He has argued that people due to become eligible for ILR between 2026 and 2030 tend to be young and low-skilled."

Allowing Hongkongers who moved to the UK to stay permanently after five years could net more than £4bn for the Treasury by 2029. The change could raise nearly as much revenue as a year's air passenger duty by enabling migrants to transfer pension savings to the UK. More than 160,000 Hongkongers with British National (Overseas) passports have moved to the UK since 2021 under a dedicated visa route opened after China's crackdown on democratic rights. Current rules allow indefinite leave to remain after five years; the Labour government plans to increase that to ten years amid internal debate about retrospective application. Political debate includes calls to abolish ILR and warnings about potential fiscal costs.

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