"“I think the Trump-Xi meeting is going to be probably not a massive event from my perspective, because I think the expectations are pretty subdued coming into this.”"
"“Subdued expectations remove the priced-in disappointment risk that usually punishes markets after high-profile diplomatic events. Johnson expects modest deals on aircraft and agricultural products, and believes the summit will go smoothly for markets as long as there is no escalation in tariffs and no saber-rattling about Taiwan.”"
"“both sides have an interest in maintaining the status quo, and historically these meetings see exuberance priced in ahead of time, followed by weakness afterward.”"
"“Polymarket traders are pricing 87.5% odds that China announces a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22, 2026. Shares closed at $236.87, up 8.84% over the past month, with Q1 2026 revenue of $22.22B (+14% YoY) and a record $695B backlog.”"
Subdued expectations for the Trump-Xi summit are expected to limit market downside from disappointment. Modest progress is anticipated, including potential deals involving aircraft and agricultural products. Markets are expected to react more favorably if tariffs do not escalate and if there is no aggressive rhetoric about Taiwan. A historical pattern is noted where optimism is priced in before meetings, followed by weakness afterward. Boeing is highlighted as an aircraft proxy, with high odds of a China purchase and strong backlog and revenue. Deere is highlighted as an agricultural proxy, with tariff headwinds already affecting profit and potential purchase agreements offering upside. NVIDIA is identified as highly sensitive to policy developments.
#us-china-relations #market-expectations #tariffs-and-trade #aerospace-and-agriculture #policy-sensitive-tech
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