"I think it's going to be a really steep climb, Dasha, said Short, in relation to GOP midterm efforts. The reality is that Americans like divided government. They don't want one party in control. Each time there's been one party in control, there's been a backlash. The once chief of staff to former Vice President Mike Pence noted that in previous midterms, the incumbent party is much more vulnerable to losing Congressional seats."
"And so, just like in the 2018 midterms when Republicans had control of everything, Democrats had a big year. In 2022, when Democrats are in control of everything, Republicans had a big year, he said. So, I think you're going to see likely a Democrat year in the midterms. Short said that due to recent gerrymandering efforts that have decreased the number of contested districts, a Democratic sweep may be smaller than in past years, if still significant."
Marc Short, a former Trump White House official and one-time chief of staff to Vice President Mike Pence, predicts a likely Democratic year in the 2026 midterms with significant Republican losses. Short attributes such vulnerability to voter preference for divided government and historical patterns in which the incumbent party loses seats in midterms, citing 2018 and 2022 as examples. Short warns that widespread gerrymandering has reduced the number of truly competitive House districts, which could limit the scale of Democratic gains even if a swing occurs. He doubts a massive pickup comparable to 2010 or 2018 but favors Democrats in tight margins.
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