The Blue State That's Now a Bellwether

"Mikie Sherrill is not prone to hyperbole. The Democratic nominee for governor of New Jersey is measured and mainstream-even "milquetoast," in the words of one progressive activist. But when I asked Sherrill what message a victory for her this November would send nationally, she made a rather bold declaration. "As New Jersey goes, so goes the nation," she told me."

"New Jersey is no one's idea of a swing state; it hasn't voted Republican for president in nearly four decades, and it last elected a GOP senator during the Nixon administration. But the Garden State has been moving rightward these past few years-Donald Trump came within six points of winning its electoral votes last year-and the governor's office has historically toggled between the parties."

"This fall's election holds outsize importance for Democrats, who want both to keep a Trump ally out of a key state office and to give their base some hope heading into the 2026 midterm elections. A win, Sherrill said, would represent the party's "shot across the bow" against Trump's second term. The off-year governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia are closely scrutinized for signs of voter backlash to whichever party controls Washington. Usually Virginia, until recently a presidential battleground, provides the best clues about the national mood. This year, however, operatives in both parties believe that New Jersey might be the closer race and the more accurate barometer of how voters are reacting to Trump's return tour in the White House."

Mikie Sherrill is a measured, mainstream Democratic nominee and former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor. New Jersey has historically leaned Democratic but has trended right recently, with Trump narrowing the state's margin in 2024. The governor's office has flipped between parties in past cycles. Democrats see the race as vital to prevent a Trump ally from holding a key state office and to energize the base ahead of 2026. National Democratic groups have invested heavily in New Jersey, prioritizing it even over Virginia as a potential indicator of national voter sentiment toward Trump's return to the White House.

Read at The Atlantic