Georgia, previously a solidly red state from 2002 to 2020, became a competitive purple state by narrowly supporting Joe Biden in 2020. Nate Silver suggests Georgia could be a tipping-point state for the 2028 election, emphasizing its must-win status for Democrats. The gap between Georgia's voting patterns and tipping-point states has significantly narrowed, showing improved Democratic support especially in the Atlanta metro region. This area has seen increases in wealth, education, and diversity, contributing to its electoral importance.
Between 1984 and 2012, Georgia voted 10.3 points to the right of the tipping-point state, on average. But between 2016 and 2024, that difference dropped to R +1.8.
Joe Biden did better than Hillary Clinton in the Atlanta metro region, and Kamala Harris further improved on Biden's margins there in 2024, one of the few places anywhere in the country where she did so.
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