How real are the starters?

"Last year Irvin struggled mightily but all his stats are back to 2024 levels. Which is to say not as bad as it looks but also not inspiring. His fancy stats do suggest something better than his ERA but I wouldn't try to read too much improvement into that. His xFIP is middle of the pack but his xERA being down a bit further. xFIP is "in a vacuum" xERA is in part "with the team you got"."

"He's good enough to put in a rotation but if you are hoping he'll be a Top 3 guy that's a stretch. The question set by the last two seasons - is he more a solid #4 or a hanging on #5? - seems to have the answer of "solid 5". His Ks and homers are probably going to get a little worse but some more outs with guys on base will offset some of that."

"Zack is a guy whose stuff has left him and has survived on guile and pinpoint accuracy over the past couple years. That accuracy is gone and the results of that is what you see. A guy getting pounded. He's got one pitch working and it's a split finger so players can just sit on balls down and hope either the pitch or his wildness takes it out of the zone."

"If you want to look on the bright side his last outing was by far his best but guys still hit him hard and got"

Nats starters in 2026 have produced mixed results, ranging from strong to poor outcomes. Foster Griffin is performing better than expected. Irvin and Cavalli are producing results consistent with expectations for their roles. Mikolas and Littell are struggling, with PJ Poulin sometimes used as a relief starter in their place. The early season nature of the sample means a game or two can shift perceptions. Irvin’s recent numbers resemble 2024-level performance, suggesting he is not a top-tier rotation arm but remains capable of back-end innings. His strikeout and homer rates may worsen, while additional outs with runners on base could help. Littell’s effectiveness has declined as his prior pinpoint accuracy disappeared, leaving him vulnerable to being hit hard, with the split-finger as his main workable pitch.

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