Death of New START heralds "a world with more nuclear risk"

"They all warned of long-term consequences should another deal - even by handshake, as Russian leader Vladimir Putin suggested - not be consummated. "In the post-New START environment, the United States will have to learn - and we're not going to like it - to live in a world with more nuclear risk facing the United States, regardless of the choices we make about the composition of our nuclear forces," said Ankit Panda at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace."

""There have been many ups and downs," said Rose Gottemoeller, New START's lead negotiator. "We have been able to have really strong, mutual predictability about what's going on in each other's nuclear force postures; that has been very important now for decades," she added. "I think it is somewhat worrisome that the treaty is going out of force without something new in sight.""

New START expires Feb. 5 after a five-year extension ended without a negotiated successor. Inspections were interrupted during the COVID pandemic, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine further stalled follow-on negotiations. Previous U.S. insistence on constraining China, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear forces, also impeded progress. Experts warn expiration will increase nuclear risk for the United States and erode decades of mutual predictability about nuclear force postures. Some analysts describe arms control as slipping into a coma or on life support and warn of long-term consequences absent a new agreement. Presidential incentives could still drive pursuit of a future treaty.

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