Europe has lost one superpower ally can it afford to be in the crosshairs of two? | Nathalie Tocci

"Europe's relationship with the US is unmoored, but it has also lost its bearings with regard to China, caught by competing forces that pull and push in opposite directions. Europe's China policy used to be a function of Washington's. When Barack Obama tried and then failed to pivot to Asia in 2011, sucked into turmoil in the Middle East instead, Europeans lulled themselves into the belief that their relationship with Asia could continue to be driven by trade, with security an afterthought."

"Despite rising tensions in the South China Sea, the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan strait, European governments viewed Asia, including China, through a predominantly economic lens. China's belt and road initiative was initially seen as a purely economic endeavour, lacking strategic edge. It was only as US-China relations soured, under the first Trump administration and then especially under Joe Biden, that Brussels switched gears."

"China was no longer seen only as a partner, but more warily, as a competitor and systemic rival. Investment screening, tariffs and export controls entered the European lexicon when talking about China. The link to the US was clear. While the EU rejected any decoupling from China, considering it undesirable and impossible, it began advocating de-risking instead. Once unpacked, this is no different from other trademark European concepts such as strategic autonomy and economic security."

Europe's relationship with the US is unmoored and Europe has lost its bearings toward China, pulled by competing forces. For years European China policy followed Washington and prioritized trade while treating security as an afterthought. Rising regional tensions and initiatives like the Belt and Road were initially viewed through an economic lens. As US-China relations deteriorated under Trump and Biden, Brussels reframed China as a competitor and systemic rival, adopting investment screening, tariffs and export controls. The EU rejects decoupling but embraces de-risking, aligning with concepts like strategic autonomy and economic security. Transatlantic uncertainty now complicates European positioning toward China and NATO's role in Asia provokes Beijing without guaranteeing Washington's support.

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