"In war after war, cities have burned, infrastructure has collapsed, leaders have been targeted from the sky, yet no regime in modern history has fallen solely because it was bombed from the air. The fundamental problem here is that bombing by a foreign power changes the politics of the situation. We are virtually 100 percent successful, tactically, with precision bombs. But that doesn't matter."
Joint U.S. and Israeli air strikes killed Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and potential successors, yet the Iranian regime continues operating with new leadership and maintains regional military capabilities through drones and missiles. Robert Pape, a leading expert on air warfare and coercion, argues that air strikes demonstrate fundamental limitations in achieving strategic objectives. His research spanning decades shows no modern regime has fallen solely from aerial bombardment. Pape identifies two critical traps: the Escalation Trap and the Smart-Bomb Trap, which cause technologically superior powers to overestimate military effectiveness. Foreign bombing campaigns paradoxically strengthen regime cohesion by unifying domestic populations against external threats, undermining the political objectives such campaigns aim to achieve.
#air-warfare-limitations #regime-change-strategy #iran-conflict #military-coercion #strategic-bombing-effectiveness
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