#forecasting

#forecasting

The ability to forecast the future is a valuable sign of intelligence and a good test of AI's capabilities. How good is ChatGPT at prediction? An answer to this fascinating question emerged recently when economist David Seif wrapped up an annual forecasting contest he runs for a secret group of economists, hedge fund investors, and tech executives. In its seventh year, the challenge requires contestants to predict roughly 30 events.

The Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) has published a report [PDF] titled "The Longitudinal Expert AI Panel" that attempts to distill the forecasts of knowledgeable folk - mainly men - in industry, academia, and policy about the capabilities, adoption, and impact of AI in the years ahead. The research project, led by Ezra Karger, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, suggests that few AI experts believe "superintelligence" as outlined by the likes of Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei will arrive anytime soon.

From back-to-school through the winter holidays, the busy retail selling season is also a time to forecast sales, set budgets, and plan for the coming year. Here are 12 new and time-tested books to help make informed choices. by Nick Foster Thinking seriously about the future is a must for those who hope to shape it. This just-released book guides readers in going beyond the usual "lazy certainties and fearful fantasies" to imagine and create what comes next.

Whether you're seeking a deeper understanding of local rainfall patterns or just a bit of casual weather observation, having a dedicated tool like Precip is invaluable.