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22 hours agoMore people losing money in prediction markets
Most Polymarket users lose money at rates similar to traditional online sports gamblers, with few big winners often linked to professional or insider-like activity.
Stocks held by members of Congress have been beating the S&P 500 lately, but there's a subset of lawmakers who crush their peers: leadership. According to a recent working paper for the National Bureau of Economic Research, congressional leaders outperform back benchers by up to 47% a year. Shang-Jin Wei from Columbia University and Columbia Business School along with Yifan Zhou from Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University looked at lawmakers who ascended to leadership posts, such as Speaker of the House as well as House and Senate floor leaders, whips, and conference/caucus chairs.