#silver

#silver

Silver delivered one of the most explosive commodity performances of the past year, surging 137% from February 2025 to February 2026. The iShares Silver Trust ( NYSEARCA:SLV) climbed from $29.46 to $69.72. A sharp 17.5% selloff in January 2026 tested conviction, triggered by Federal Reserve chair speculation that sent the dollar surging. After the drop, Reddit lit up with loss posts and SLV put option wins.

A Wall Street veteran since 1975, Oliver founded Momentum Structural Analysis in 1992 for institutional investor clients, finally opening subscriptions for individual investors in 2015. His proprietary method of calculating prices on commodities, equities, and other market trading sectors into a momentum oscillator gives him indications of market energy building and decaying long before other technical pricing methodologies begin to indicate trends.

Silver just delivered one of its worst weeks in recent history. The iShares Silver Trust ( NYSE:SLV) plunged 35.6% to around $68, erasing months of gains in just five trading days. The speed and severity of the collapse has retirees asking whether this represents a rare buying opportunity in precious metals or a warning sign that commodity exposure doesn't belong in retirement portfolios.

In 2026, scarcity is being repriced through narratives, market access and financial structures rather than simple supply limits. Bitcoin's scarcity is increasingly mediated by ETFs and derivatives, reshaping how it is accessed and priced in financial markets. Gold's scarcity is tied less to mining output and more to trust, neutrality and reserve management. Silver's scarcity reflects its dual role as both an investment metal and an industrial input.

Silver extended its rebound for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, supported by escalating geopolitical risks and persistent supply deficits. Developments in Latin America injected fresh geopolitical uncertainty into the market. Comments from President Trump also affected sentiment and could amplify safe-haven flows into precious metals. Meanwhile, tensions remain elevated across Eastern Europe and the Middle East, reinforcing silver's defensive appeal.

Silver has risen sharply during December, part of a precious metals rally that also pushed gold and platinum to record levels on Boxing Day. Analysts have attributed the jump in prices to expectations of US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, leading to increased demand for hard assets that protect against inflation and currency debasement. New restrictions on silver exports from China, which begin on 1 January, have created supply fears while geopolitical worries have lifted demand for safe-haven assets.

Silver prices fell sharply on Tuesday, retreating from last week's record highs as investors took profits following a rapid rally driven by tight supply conditions and macroeconomic tailwinds. The pullback comes as broader risk appetite improved, fuelled by easing US-China trade tensions and signs of progress in resolving the US government shutdown. President Donald Trump stated he expects to reach a "fair" trade agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their upcoming meeting in South Korea, helping calm markets.

Gold's meteoric rise in 2025, with prices soaring to a record $4,200 an ounce, has dominated headlines, often eclipsing silver's own remarkable performance. Yet silver is having a standout year , with prices climbing above $52 an ounce, outpacing even the S&P 500 's stellar returns this year. This surge suggests silver's upward trajectory isn't over - some analysts see a realistic path to $100 per ounce. A potential silver squeeze may be fueling this momentum, characterized by skyrocketing borrowing costs and a tightening market.

Silver's charge toward the $50 mark - a 71% YTD increase - is being fuelled by powerful, real-world forces rather than the speculation that drove its 1980 high. A deepening structural deficit, record industrial demand (it reached a record 680.5 Moz in 2024), and accelerating investment in green technologies are tightening supply and pushing prices higher. While silver doesn't share gold's full safe-haven credentials, its dual role as an industrial and store-of-value metal continues to draw investors seeking stability and upside.

Silver traded recorded some volatility on Tuesday, hovering near its highest level since 2011, as investors weighed macroeconomic signals and industrial momentum. Markets continued to price in a near 90% probability of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut later this month, following dovish remarks from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who warned of labour market fragilities and described tariff-driven inflation as likely transitory. Ongoing concerns over the Fed's independence and broader uncertainty around US trade policy kept safe-haven demand elevated.