"Analysis by Yale University's Budget Lab found there had been no discernible disruption since ChatGPT's release in November 2022. Researchers said its conclusion was not surprising because historical trends pointed to technological upheaval in workforces taking place over decades rather than months or years. Computers didn't become commonplace in offices until nearly a decade after their release to the public, and it took even longer for them to transform office workflows, said the study."
"Even if new AI technologies will go on to impact the labor market as much, or more, dramatically, it is reasonable to expect that widespread effects will take longer than 33 months to materialise. The study said changes in the occupational mix in the US a measure of what sort of jobs people do in the world's biggest economy and whether fewer people are in certain types of occupations were well under way during 2021 and more recent changes did not seem any more pronounced."
No discernible disruption to the US jobs market has emerged since ChatGPT's November 2022 release. Historical technological upheavals in workforces typically unfold over decades rather than months or a few years. Computers became commonplace in offices nearly a decade after public release and took longer to transform office workflows. Widespread effects from new AI technologies are therefore likely to take longer than 33 months to materialize. Changes in the occupational mix were already underway during 2021, with recent shifts not markedly more pronounced. The pace of change remains much slower than the rapid labor-market upheaval of the 1940s and 1950s.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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