Change management is broken. These 4 numbers explain why

"Change is often presented as an enigma. Unlike a traditional management task, you can't just devise a plan and execute it. To be an effective change leader, you need to embrace a certain amount of uncertainty because change, by definition, involves doing new things, and that always involves some measure of unpredictability. Still, that doesn't mean change is mysterious. We actually know a lot about it."

"In Diffusion of Innovations, researcher Everett Rogers compiled hundreds of studies performed over many decades. Around the same time, Gene Sharp led a parallel effort to understand how large-scale political movements drive social and institutional change. So while any change effort involves no small amount of uncertainty, there is also quite a bit of consistency. Much as Tolstoy remarked about families, all successful transformations end up looking very much alike, while all unsuccessful transformations end up failing in their own way."

"His ideas became McKinsey's first change management model that it sold to clients. His eight-step change management process continues to define the field for many even today. Later, Prosci's ADKAR model gained prominence. Yet for all of the prestige surrounding these ideas, there's no evidence that any of these change management methods actually work. In fact, in a 2021 study McKinsey found that 69% of transformation efforts fail."

Change requires embracing uncertainty because it involves doing new things and inherent unpredictability. Decades of empirical work and parallel studies of political movements reveal repeatable patterns in how change spreads and succeeds. Established change-management models and multi-step processes remain widely taught and used across organizations. Empirical support for the universal effectiveness of those models is limited, however, and observed transformation success rates are low. One large study found 69% of transformation efforts fail, and another found only 12% succeed. Leaders should treat change as adaptive and iterative, learning from consistent patterns of successful transformations.

Read at Fast Company