"Goldman Sachs now expects Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April before retreating to $80 by year-end, assuming roughly six weeks of Hormuz supply disruptions."
"The bank raised its headline PCE inflation forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% by December 2026 and nudged its full-year GDP growth estimate down to 2.1%."
"Goldman raised its recession probability by 5 percentage points - to 30% - while stressing that a recession is still not its base case."
"Goldman does not expect the oil shock to durably unhinge inflation expectations, noting that even major energy shocks in recent history did not produce lasting shifts in price expectations."
Goldman Sachs has increased its inflation forecast and reduced its growth outlook in light of rising oil prices from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The bank now anticipates Brent crude to average $105 per barrel in March and $115 in April, before declining to $80 by year-end. It raised its PCE inflation forecast to 3.1% by December 2026 and lowered GDP growth to 2.1%. While recession risks have increased to 30%, Goldman maintains that a recession is not its base case.
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