#oil-prices

#oil-prices

The VIX closed last week at almost 27, an 11% jump on the final trading day, and early signals this week show it climbing further. The fear gauge now sits at its 93rd percentile over the past year, meaning volatility has been this elevated or higher only 7% of trading days in the last 12 months.

"We posit that the ongoing loss of energy supply to [the] global economy is so large (larger than the shocks of the 1970s as a share of oil supply) that it simply must be solved, either militarily or diplomatically, and that through various potential channels this occurs by mid-late April."

"Fuel surcharges are not a stranger to the cruise industry," says Leslie Fambrini, a travel specialist. This indicates that such fees have been previously implemented and are part of the industry's pricing strategies.

"There are very real physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world through the system that I don't think are fully priced in," said Chevron CEO Mike Wirth.

The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) has spent 27 years being the answer to the question of which part of the market absorbs the blow best during economic downturns, holding 36 positions across essential goods.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby stated, 'Our plans assume oil goes to $175/barrel and doesn't get back down to $100/barrel until the end of 2027.' This reflects the airline's strategy to cope with rising fuel costs.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the Iranian oil waiver as a 'narrowly tailored, short-term authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil currently stranded at sea,' which is expected to release about 140 million barrels. He emphasized that Iran 'will have difficulty accessing any revenue generated.'

Inflation is the reason the Fed can't step in to help. The Fed's preferred gauge hit 3.1% year-over-year in January 2026 and is expected to hover near 2.9% through December—well above the 2% target.

Brazil is the world's dominant sugar exporter, accounting for roughly 45% of global sugar trade. The decision on how much sugarcane goes to sugar versus ethanol is influenced by fluctuating oil prices.

Delta raised its Q1 revenue growth guidance to the high single digits, above its prior 5-7% forecast, while absorbing roughly $400 million in additional fuel costs since the escalation of the Iran conflict.

Inflation is still stubbornly above its 2% target, and while the jobs sector is weak, it has not been alarming enough to spur significant action from the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The International Energy Agency has advised member countries to take emergency measures to curb oil demand, following military strikes on Iran that have triggered significant supply disruptions.

behind the recent jump are primarily the weak labour market numbers, but almost all the economic data has turned soft since the end of last year. Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent.