The Red Sea cuts spurred companies and governments to look for alternate routes, and the Strait of Hormuz seemed promising. Then the US and Israel attacked Iran, cable projects were halted, and now the world is looking elsewhere once again.
The dollar index rose on Tuesday, reversing previous losses as renewed doubts over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire revived demand for the currency. Risk appetite deteriorated after President Donald Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal and warned that the ceasefire was "on life support," raising fears that tensions could intensify again.
The owner of British Airways has warned that the war in Iran will saddle the group with a €2 billion fuel bill shock this year, taking the gloss off a bullish set of first-quarter numbers and forcing the City to rein in its profit expectations.
Falling oil prices and easing inflation concerns pushed bond yields and the dollar lower, supporting gold prices. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.4%, and softer real yields lower the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like bullion.
Gold advanced further on Thursday after surging in the previous session, supported by falling long-term Treasury yields and a softer US dollar. Growing optimism surrounding a potential agreement between the United States and Iran has eased fears of a prolonged energy shock, helping reduce inflation concerns.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has threatened to strike 18 US technology and defense-related companies operating in the Middle East, including GE, which has contributed to a bearish sentiment among investors.
Escalating geopolitical risk continued to dominate global markets' concerns, with safe-haven demand keeping the dollar index anchored near a multi-week high.
The February PAPI declined over the month and is nearly 10% lower than a year ago, reflecting both reduced payments and steady income growth, Edward Seiler said. While affordability conditions remain challenging in many markets, these incremental gains felt across more than half of states are an encouraging sign for prospective buyers, particularly those seeking lower-payment options.
"I think it surprised me how easily people are swayed by headlines," says Suderman, noting that wartime information flows are often strategic and conflicting. "You have to learn in a wartime to take everything with a grain of salt in the context of what you observe."
Rising inflation concerns, hawkish monetary policy signals, and escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on risk assets. Energy markets are adding to the pressure. Oil prices surged following renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East, intensifying concerns about inflationary pressure.
The FTSE 100 has made another tentative step in early trade to recover losses sparked by the outbreak of war with Iran. Stocks on Wall Street are also set to resume a rally as investor sentiment recovers. Iraq has clinched a deal with Turkey to resume exports through the port of Ceyhan, instead of using the dangerous Strait of Hormuz. This is leading to hopes that a severe, prolonged oil shock will not materialise, as more crude supplies are able to filter out of the region through other routes.
In the ME-CENTRAL-1 (UAE) Region, two of our three Availability Zones (mec1-az2 and mec1-az3) remain significantly impaired. The third Availability Zone (mec1-az1) continues to operate normally, though some services have experienced indirect impact due to dependencies on the affected zones. In the ME-SOUTH-1 (Bahrain) Region, one facility has been impacted.
The current decline in silver prices is not merely a temporary correction, but a deeper repricing of market expectations regarding the path of U.S. interest rates, which remains the most influential factor in the short term for non-yielding assets.
The recent incidents in the Strait of Hormuz show how quickly maritime risk can escalate from geopolitical tension to operational disruption. For shipping operators, the challenge is not only the threat environment itself, but also maintaining reliable situational awareness as navigation signals degrade and vessel activity becomes harder to interpret.
We should try to find the off-ramp. Iran could demolish oil and gas infrastructure across the Middle East, but more alarmingly, it could start targeting desalination plants, which provide water to much of the region, and could lead to an even larger humanitarian crisis.
Bitcoin price rising about 8% since the first strikes against Iran, reaching a one-month high above $73,000. The move placed the digital asset ahead of several traditional safe-haven and risk assets during a period of geopolitical stress.
