#treasury-yields

#treasury-yields

The dollar stabilised to a certain extent today after retreating in the prior session, but could remain relatively volatile as markets react to geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Treasury yields were firmer following a pullback on Monday as well.

The metal has come under pressure as rising geopolitical tensions have pushed energy prices higher, reinforcing concerns about inflation and tightening financial conditions. This has resulted in a rise in US Treasury yields to multi-week highs, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold.

Futures are trading lower as many across Wall Street breathed a semi-sigh of relief yesterday after oil futures, which shot up to $120 overnight, retreated below $100 on Monday. That was the biggest spike in oil pricing since 2020. With the retreat in the black gold, the major indices did a massive midday turnaround.

The expectations of a decrease in tensions triggered a pullback in oil prices, which in turn softened immediate concerns about inflation pressures. However, the broader geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, and any renewed escalation could quickly push oil prices, the dollar, and Treasury yields higher again.

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Futures are trading higher after a wild Wednesday that saw the market rally hard on the open on the non-farm payrolls print that blew away estimates, despite a significant decline in government jobs. However, the "buy the rumor, sell the news" cliche came in fast and strong, quickly turning the rally into a big sell-off. While stocks rallied off late-morning lows, all major indices ended the day just modestly lower.

In addition, if the January consumer price index number, to be posted on Friday, comes in below expectations, there may be no rate cuts until the summer, if then. The best move for growth and income investors seeking solid passive income is to start adding top companies now, as interest rates will rise with no help from the Federal Reserve.

Futures are trading mixed this morning after a dreadful day across Wall Street, with all major indices closing lower except the Russell 2000. What began in late December and has gained considerable traction recently is the narrative of a broad rotation out of technology stocks. For the last three years, technology stocks, led by the Magnificent 7, have marched the S&P 500 to three consecutive years of double-digit gains.

The kicker for Wednesday was that various media outlets reported that Blue Owl Capital ( NYSE: OWL) may not fund the $10 billion data center for OpenAI, which in turn hammered Oracle Corporation ( NYSE: ORCL). Blue Owl had been in talks with Oracle about funding a 1-gigawatt facility for Michigan, but the spiraling increase in debt was reported to have turned the tables, at least for now. That led to steep losses across the major indices, with the Nasdaq taking the biggest hit, closing down 1.81% at 22,693.

Futures are trading higher on Wednesday as we reach the midpoint of the last full trading week of the year. Sellers once again took their toll on two of the major indices, while the Nasdaq squeaked out a minimal gain after being down around the noon hour. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.62% at 48,114, while the S&P 500 was last down 0.44% at 6800. The Nasdaq pulled out a small win for the Bulls, finishing the session at 23,111, up 0.23%.

Markets continue to price roughly a 75% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its January meeting. Attention now turns to Thursday's inflation data, which is expected to show broadly stable price pressures. An upside surprise could further support the dollar and yields, while any deceleration would likely revive expectations for earlier or deeper easing, weighing on both.

Futures are trading higher on Monday as we head into the final trading weeks of 2025. All of the major indices were hit hard on Friday as investors began a big rotation last week out of the AI stocks that have led the market higher since ChatGPT was introduced over three years ago. The miss by Oracle Corporation ( NYSE: ORCL) seems like the final straw for many, as the Magnificent 7 have started to wobble in 2025,