"The big picture: As the government shutdown drags on, so will the delay in key indicators - including the monthly jobs report. Private sector data can offer some clarity about economic conditions in any given month, though without the massive samples and long track record of government data, which economists consider the gold standard. Driving the news: In the absence of that data, the ADP report was this week's headliner."
"Economists anticipated the labor market added about 55,000 jobs last month, picking up from the 22,000 added in August (though that number is subject to a fresh revision in the postponed report). Similarly, data from job listings site Indeed shows that as of Sept. 26, overall job postings were down 2.5% from a month earlier. Its wage tracker, based on advertised salaries in job postings, shows a steady slowing in wage growth."
"The ISM said that both the service and manufacturing sectors continued to shed jobs, though notably at a slower rate than in August. Roughly 64% of manufacturers - a sector walloped by tariffs - said that "managing head count is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring," ISM said. Reality check: Most private sector labor reports are similar to the payroll data usually captured by the government's survey of businesses."
Employment barely moved last month despite strong business investment and consumer spending, with private indicators signaling weakness amid delayed government data due to the shutdown. The ADP report showed a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs in September and revised August's gains into a slight loss, against economist expectations of about 55,000 jobs. Job postings on Indeed fell 2.5% month-over-month and advertised wage growth continued to slow. ISM surveys reported continued job shedding in services and manufacturing, with 64% of manufacturers managing head count rather than hiring. Private measures lack household survey coverage of labor force size and unemployment.
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