"The market is reacting to Air Force's explosive run game against Hawai'i's weak front, and it is true that the Falcons are one of the most efficient rushing teams in the country. They can put up yards in a hurry, and they score in bunches. Hawai'i's defense is soft against the run, but it has one of the best secondaries in the Mountain West. The Rainbow Warriors can defend the pass, force opponents into field goals in the red zone and make teams play long drives."
"Hawai'i's offense matches up directly with Air Force's weakness. The Falcons are dead last in coverage and do not generate takeaways. That makes Hawai'i's turnover issues look worse on paper than in reality. Five of their giveaways came in one game against Arizona, and 24 of Arizona's 40 points came directly off those turnovers. That game was the outlier, not the norm."
Week 5 presents four matchups: Hawai'i at Air Force, Tulsa vs Tulane, Jacksonville State at Southern Miss, and Kentucky at South Carolina. Air Force features one of the nation's most efficient rushing attacks and can score quickly, while Hawai'i has a weak run front but one of the Mountain West's best secondaries. Hawai'i's offense exploits Air Force's poor coverage and lack of takeaways; most turnovers stemmed from one game against Arizona. The Hawai'i line opened at +4 and moved to +6.5, creating a betting opportunity. Three of the listed games include moneyline options.
Read at ESPN.com
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