A government shutdown could delay news of next Social Security raise

"How it works: The monthly Consumer Price Index, a gauge of inflation, is used to calculate the annual COLA, or cost of living adjustment, that the more than 72.5 million recipients of Social Security and Disability Insurance get each year. The COLAis based on the change in CPI for wage earners - from the third quarter of 2024 through the third quarter of 2025. The final report of Q3 is due out Oct. 11. Recipients see the increase in their January check."

"Zoom in: "A delay of the CPI release during October of each year might have an impact on the Cost of Living Adjustment announcement by the Social Security Administration," per the Labor Department. The Social Security Administration did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment on how such a delay might impact planned benefit increases in January. In the event of a shutdown, Social Security checks are still sent out - but benefit verification would stop."

"So would the issuance of new Social Security cards. The big picture: Agencies are starting to release their shutdown plans, as the deadline looms ahead of the Tuesday midnight deadline. President Trump is set to hold a meeting in the White House on Monday with top congressional leaders to discuss a possible resolution. Zoom out: This year's COLA is expected to land at 2.8% - a tick up from last year"

The monthly Consumer Price Index determines the annual COLA for more than 72.5 million Social Security and Disability Insurance recipients. The COLA is calculated from the CPI change for wage earners between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025, with the final Q3 report due Oct. 11, and increases appear in January checks. A delay of the CPI release in October might affect the COLA announcement, per the Labor Department. In a government shutdown, Social Security checks continue to be sent, but benefit verification and issuance of new Social Security cards would stop. The COLA is expected near 2.8%.

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