The Unlikely State Where Democrats Could Turn U.S. Politics on Its Head

"In 2018 U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke broke state fundraising records and sparked national attention with his campaign for a Texas Senate seat. The polls never had him as the favorite-FiveThirtyEight gave him a 23 percent chance by Election Day-but it was noteworthy that in Texas a Democrat was even close. Bolstered by the notoriously unlikable Ted Cruz and a national "blue wave," O'Rourke lost by only 2.6 points. Not bad for an anti-gun Democrat in a seemingly deep-red state."

"In hindsight, O'Rourke's narrow loss was actually the cruelest thing he could've done to the Democratic Party. It created a misleading impression that a long-dreamed-of blue Texas was right around the corner. That idea was emboldened in 2020, after Joe Biden lost the state by just 5.5 points. It was a larger loss than O'Rourke's had been, but it was arguably more impressive when you took into account the more Republican-friendly national environment."

"Then came Kamala Harris' 2024 Texas wipeout, when she lost to Donald Trump by 13.7 points. It was a massive regression, and it felt familiar. For years, optimistic Democrats-braced by near misses-had promised a blue Texas over the horizon. And, once again, when the big moment arrived, the state apparently returned to a deep-red hue. Not only did this seemingly destroy any hope that Texas was trending blue,"

In 2018 Beto O'Rourke nearly defeated Ted Cruz, losing by 2.6 points after unprecedented fundraising and national attention. His close result fostered belief that Texas might soon turn Democratic, an expectation reinforced when Joe Biden lost the state by 5.5 points in 2020 despite a less favorable national environment. Democrats maintained optimism through 2022, but the 2024 election produced a sharp reversal when Kamala Harris lost Texas to Donald Trump by 13.7 points. The result undercut the theory that Hispanic and Latino turnout would deliver Texas to Democrats, as Trump captured 55 percent of Latino voters, up from 41 percent in 2020.

Read at Slate Magazine