""Even before the conflict, I thought recession and risks were on the rise. Recession risks are very high—and unless the hostilities are coming to an end now, I think recession is more than likely by the second half of the year.""
""If the cost of oil continues trending upward, a recession is all but imminent. The cost of Brent crude has been hovering at around $97 per barrel, but reached a record-breaking $115 per barrel last week.""
""Based on simulations of our global macroeconomic model, oil prices would only need to average close to $125 per barrel in the second quarter of this year to significantly impact the economy.""
Moody's Analytics raised its recession outlook to 48.6%, with Goldman Sachs at 30% and EY-Parthenon at 40%. Economic indicators showed a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate nearing 4.5%. Analysts warn that the ongoing war in the Gulf could trigger an oil shock, exacerbating recession risks. Mark Zandi of Moody's stated that unless hostilities cease, a recession is likely by the year's second half. Oil prices, currently around $97 per barrel, could lead to recession if they average close to $125 per barrel in the second quarter.
Read at Fortune
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