#labour-market

#labour-market

Bear markets, let's remember, are caused by recessions and, so far, the US economy keeps ticking along...even with a government shutdown the stock market made new highs. Partly that is because markets usually do look through shutdowns, partly it's because this remains a late-cycle grind up with momentum and FOMO driving prices higher. No nonfarm payrolls later due to the government shutdown, so it is kind of tricky for the FX traders and bond markets.

Inflationary pressures persist, driven by a tight labour market and resultant rising wages, as well as transport and fuel costs, rising airfares, and high costs in the services sector. The UK remains at the top of the G7 inflation league table, roughly a percentage point above the US and nearly double the Eurozone rate - inflation in the UK appears to be taking a different trajectory,

When asked about their plans for the rest of 2025, just under half (48%) of SMEs leaders revealed they are looking to upskill their current team, by far the most popular answer. This compares to 29% who plan on expanding their leadership team and a quarter (25%) who plan to hire new staff. This strategic focus on developing internal talent reflects wider concerns about recruitment challenges.

The US dollar steadied on Thursday, as traders weighed signals of a softer labour market and awaited further releases. Job openings fell to a low in July, undershooting expectations, while factory orders dropped for a second consecutive month. These indicators reinforced the view that the economy is cooling, even as attention now shifts to today's ISM Services index, expected at 51, and to Friday's payrolls.

"There is now considerably more doubt about when and exactly how quickly we can make those further steps."

BDO's Optimism Index rose to 91.96 in July, up from 91.58 in June, driven by a strong rebound in manufacturing optimism, which rose sharply from 93.74 to 96.50.

The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.7% in May, a four-year high, surprising economists and reinforcing concerns over a slowing economy.

Employers will be required to provide evidence of investing in UK skills to recruit foreign workers, a policy long-promised by Labour targeting sectors like IT.

The UK-India trade deal has prompted criticism from opposition parties, who believe it could disadvantage British businesses by making Indian workers cheaper to hire.

The government must show greater ambition and urgency in addressing the employment prospects of older workers if it hopes to meet its goal of an 80% employment rate.